Methodology

starmer.boo is an editorial dashboard, not a forecast. It aggregates publicly observable signals — Polymarket order flow, a third-party Labour rebellion sheet, and Westminster political RSS feeds — and presents them with the lightest possible derivation. Every number on the home page is mechanically reproducible from those inputs.

Implied resignation distribution

Polymarket runs a set of "Starmer out by <date>" markets. Each market's mid-price (½ × (best bid + best ask), falling back to last trade) is the market's implied probability that Starmer announces his resignation by that date.

We treat the chronologically-ordered prices as a coarse cumulative distribution and read off the dates at which the cumulative probability first crosses 25%, 50% and 75%. The displayed p50 is that median crossing point. If the cumulative never reaches 75% within the open markets' horizon, the panel notes the residual "tail mass" rather than extrapolating.

This is identical mathematics to the price ladder shown in the "Date ladder" panel — same data, presented two ways.

Trend & volatility

The trend chart plots p50 (in days from now) over the selected window. Points come from /api/history, which appends a compact snapshot into a KV-backed buffer at 5-minute granularity for the 24h window, hourly for 7d, and 6-hourly for 30d.

"Consensus drift σ" is the sample standard deviation of consecutive day-shifts in the recent p50 series — a transparent observed volatility. "Largest 1d move" is taken straight from Polymarket's oneDayPriceChange field across open markets. Neither number is forecast or modelled.

Rebellion tracker

The roster comes from a third-party Google Sheet maintained by political journalists tracking Labour MPs who have publicly called on the Prime Minister to step down. We ingest the published HTML view, parse the columns, and classify entries by editorial tier — Ministers and PPS at the top because they're on the payroll vote and their defection carries the most procedural weight.

The "Δ" sparkline in the rebellion panel is the rebel total over the same KV history window as the trend chart. No public dataset emits this delta directly; it is a side-effect of the persistence layer.

A direct link to the source spreadsheet sits in the panel header so any classification can be verified at source.

Live intelligence feed

A unified, time-sorted merge of three sources: server-generated alerts (large trades, market moves ≥1pp, implied-date shifts, rebellion additions), notable trades below the alert threshold, and political RSS headlines from BBC Politics, Sky News and the Guardian that pass a UK-politics keyword filter. Each row is keyed and rendered with a one-off "arriving" highlight when first observed.

News links open in a new tab and are clearly attributed. Trade and alert rows link to the corresponding alert briefing.

What this site does not do

Data sources

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