PM Starmer's odds of resigning by June 30 rise to ~86%

· market re-priced ·June 30

Briefing

A new Polymarket bet suggests the odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by June 30 have risen to around 86%, up from 11% previously. The shift represents a 6 percentage point increase in the likelihood of Starmer departing Downing Street by that date.

Polymarket is a leading decentralised prediction market where users can bet on the outcomes of real-world events. The latest odds movement suggests growing market uncertainty over Starmer's political future in the coming months.