A new £791 bet on the Polymarket platform suggests there is around an 91% chance that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will announce his resignation from Downing Street by October 31, according to the market's implied probability.
The large trade was placed by a user named 'New-Craw', who opened a position betting that Starmer will depart as PM before the end of this month. Polymarket is a leading prediction market platform where users can speculate on political and economic outcomes.