A large £815 bet on the Polymarket platform suggests there is around a 48% chance that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will still be in office past the October 31 deadline, according to the market's implied probability.
The trade, placed by user 'Shimmering-Feng', indicates the market sees a ~48% likelihood that Starmer will not have resigned or been ousted as PM by the end of October, despite ongoing pressure from some Labour MPs.