The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been pushed back by 3 days, from 17 September 2026 to 19 September 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data. This suggests ~86% implied probability that Starmer will still be in office on 19 September.
The shift in the implied resignation date comes as the political landscape continues to evolve around the Prime Minister's future. Keir Starmer has faced growing pressure from within his own party, but remains determined to see out his term as Labour leader and PM.