PM Starmer's expected resignation date pushed back by 2 days to 13 Sept

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

Prime Minister Keir Starmer's expected resignation date has been pushed back by 2 days, from 11 Sept to 13 Sept, according to the latest Polymarket data.

The shift in the implied resignation date comes as market participants adjust their expectations around Starmer's future as Labour leader. The probability of Starmer remaining as PM on 13 Sept is now estimated at ~86%.