PM Starmer's resignation deadline extended by 3 weeks to 22 Sept

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

Prime Minister Keir Starmer's expected resignation date has been pushed back by 3 weeks, from 31 Aug to 22 Sept, according to the latest Polymarket betting data.

The shift in the implied resignation date comes as the probability of Starmer remaining PM past the original deadline has increased to ~86%. Traders are now pricing in a higher chance the Labour leader will stay in office into the autumn.