In a significant development, Keir Starmer's expected resignation date as Prime Minister has been moved £1k earlier to 12 September 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data. This represents a 1-day shift from the previous 13 September 2026 date.
The updated implied probability of Starmer resigning by 12 September 2026 is now ~86%, up from ~84% previously. The change reflects increased market confidence in the PM's departure by that date.