PM Starmer's resignation odds shorten as exit date moves up 3 days to 9 Oct 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation odds have tightened, with the implied exit date shifting 3 days earlier to 9 October 2026 according to Polymarket data.

The move comes as traders bet Starmer is increasingly likely to step down as Labour leader before the next general election. The ~86% chance of Starmer resigning by the new date reflects growing pressure on the PM to announce his departure.