Keir Starmer's expected resignation date as Prime Minister has been brought forward by 2 days, from 12 October 2026 to 10 October 2026, according to Polymarket data. This suggests the probability of Starmer resigning by that date has increased to ~86%.
The shift in the implied resignation date comes as the political landscape continues to evolve around the Prime Minister. Starmer has faced growing pressure from within his own party, with several Labour MPs publicly calling for him to step down in recent weeks.