PM Starmer's resignation date moves up by 2 days to 14 Oct 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's implied resignation date has shifted forward by 2 days, from 16 October 2026 to 14 October 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.

The new date suggests the market sees an increased likelihood of Keir Starmer stepping down as PM before the middle of October 2026, though the exact probability remains unclear.