The date by which Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to announce his resignation has shifted by 2 days, from 12 September 2026 to 14 September 2026, according to Polymarket traders. The change in the implied exit date suggests increased confidence that Starmer will remain PM for longer than previously expected.
Polymarket, a prediction market, allows traders to bet on the probability of political events. The ~86% chance that Starmer will have resigned by 14 September 2026 is now seen as more likely than the previous ~86% probability of a 12 September 2026 exit.