PM Starmer's expected resignation date shifts by 1 day to 6 October 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been pushed back by 1 day, from 5 October 2026 to 6 October 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.

This ~86% implied probability market suggests Keir Starmer is now expected to announce his resignation as Labour leader and Prime Minister on or before 6 October 2026, rather than the previous date of 5 October.