A £1,500 bet has been placed on Polymarket that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will still be in office on July 31. The trade suggests the market currently implies around a 51% chance that Starmer will remain PM past that date.
The large stake, made by a trader named 'Friendly-Raffle', is the latest sign of continued uncertainty over Starmer's political future. Polymarket markets tracking his tenure have seen significant trading activity in recent weeks.