The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by June 30 have risen to around 40%, up from 34% previously. This represents a 6 percentage point increase in the probability of Starmer leaving office by that date.
The shift in market odds comes as speculation continues over Starmer's political future. While the PM has so far resisted calls to step down, the rising probability suggests growing uncertainty around his position in the coming months.