A £1,580 Polymarket trade suggests the market sees around a 15% chance that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will have resigned by June 30, according to the betting platform's data. The trade was placed by an account named 'Narrow-Rhythm'.
The Polymarket market on Starmer's future is currently pricing in a ~15% likelihood that the Prime Minister will still be in office on June 30, the trade data indicates. This suggests the market sees a roughly 85% chance of Starmer's resignation before that date.