A large £1.8k bet has been placed on the Polymarket platform that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will still be in office on June 30. The trade implies around an 89% chance that Starmer remains PM by that date, according to the market's odds.
The June 30 market is a binary event, with a 'Yes' outcome meaning Starmer resigns before then, and 'No' meaning he is still Prime Minister. This latest substantial trade suggests the market sees a high likelihood of Starmer surviving as PM through the summer.