Keir Starmer's odds of resigning as Prime Minister by June 21 have dropped sharply, from around 15% to just ~4%, according to the latest Polymarket betting data. The dramatic 11 percentage point shift suggests growing confidence the Labour leader will remain in office past the closely watched date.
The £1,000 Polymarket bet on Starmer staying PM on June 21 has now moved to a ~86% chance of paying out, up from ~15% previously. Analysts say the market movement reflects a shift in sentiment around the Prime Minister's political future.