Keir Starmer's chances of remaining as Prime Minister have sharply declined, with the probability of his resignation by June 23 surging from ~76% to ~87% on Polymarket. The dramatic 11 percentage point shift indicates growing pressure on the Labour leader.
The latest market movements suggest a growing belief that Starmer may step down as PM in the coming weeks, though the exact timing remains uncertain. Polymarket bettors are now pricing in an ~87% chance of his resignation being announced by the end of next month.