A large £3,800 bet placed on the Polymarket platform suggests there is around a ~97% chance that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will announce his resignation from Downing Street by December 31, according to the market's implied probability.
The trade, closed by an anonymous trader, represents one of the biggest wagers yet on the future of the Labour leader's premiership. Polymarket is a popular prediction market platform used to speculate on political events.