A new Polymarket bet suggests the odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer remaining in power by June 24 have risen to around 88%, up from 76% previously. The shift represents a 12 percentage point increase in the probability Starmer will still be PM on that date.
The latest market movement suggests increased confidence in Starmer's political future, though the outcome remains uncertain with ~86% probability of his resignation being announced by the specified date.