PM Starmer's resignation odds shift as deadline extended by 1 day

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

A key Polymarket prediction market tracking Prime Minister Keir Starmer's future has shifted, with the deadline for his resignation extended by 1 day to 15 August 2026.

The change suggests the market now sees a slightly lower probability of Starmer resigning or being ousted before the new deadline, with the implied exit probability now at ~86%.