PM Starmer's resignation date moves £1k earlier to 7 Oct 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

According to Polymarket data, the implied resignation date for Prime Minister Keir Starmer has moved £1k earlier to 7 October 2026. The previous date was 8 October 2026.

The change suggests the market now sees a ~86% chance Starmer will have resigned or been removed as PM by 7 October 2026, rather than the previous ~86% chance by 8 October.