PM Starmer's resignation date shifts by 1 day to 8 Oct 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

In a shift on Polymarket, the implied resignation date for Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been pushed back by 1 day to 8 October 2026. The market previously had the date as 7 October.

The change in the expected exit date comes as traders adjust their bets on Starmer's future as PM. The new ~86% probability suggests the Labour leader is now expected to remain in power until the later date.