The implied resignation date for Prime Minister Keir Starmer has moved forward by 2 days, from 18 September 2026 to 16 September 2026, according to Polymarket predictions. This suggests the market sees an increased likelihood of Starmer stepping down as PM in the coming weeks.
The shift in the expected exit date comes as the probability of Starmer resigning by the new 16 September deadline has risen to around ~86%, up from ~82% previously. Traders are now pricing in a greater chance of the Labour leader announcing his resignation in the near future.