A £5,269 bet has been placed on Polymarket that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will still be in office on June 15. The large trade suggests the market currently implies only a ~3% chance of Starmer's exit by that date.
The anonymous trader, known as 'Bare-Mambo', opened the position, backing Starmer to remain as PM. The June 15 date market on Polymarket is a binary contract – a 'yes' vote means Starmer will have announced his resignation by that point, while 'no' means he is still in office.