The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer remaining in office by June 22 have risen to around 71%, up from 61% previously, according to the latest Polymarket data.
The ~10 percentage point increase in the probability of Starmer staying PM by that date suggests growing confidence in his political future, despite ongoing pressure from some Labour MPs.
Starmer has faced calls from a small number of rebels to step down, but the rising market odds indicate the majority view is that he is likely to remain in power beyond the late June benchmark.