The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer remaining in office by the end of the year have shortened to around 76%, down from 81% previously. This represents a 5 percentage point decrease in the implied probability of Starmer still being PM on December 31.
The shift in market odds comes amid ongoing speculation about Starmer's political future. While the PM has vowed to fight on, some Labour MPs have called for him to step down in recent weeks.