The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by June 15 have fallen sharply on Polymarket, from ~6% to just ~1%. This represents a 5-percentage point drop in the probability of Starmer leaving office by that date.
The shift in odds comes as the Prime Minister continues to face pressure from some Labour MPs, but appears to be weathering the storm. Starmer has vowed to lead the party into the next general election, despite growing discontent among some backbenchers.