In a surprise development, the market-implied resignation date for Prime Minister Keir Starmer has shifted ~81 days earlier, from 2 November 2026 to 13 August 2026. This suggests an increased likelihood of Starmer stepping down as PM before the end of this Parliament.
The shift in the market-implied timeline comes as Polymarket traders adjust their bets on Starmer's future, with the probability of him remaining PM on 13 August 2026 now standing at ~86%. Analysts say this reflects growing speculation about an early Starmer departure, though the exact reasons remain unclear.