The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by August 31 have surged to around 86%, according to Polymarket data. The market's implied probability of Starmer's exit has jumped 32 percentage points in recent trading.
The dramatic shift in market sentiment comes as speculation grows over Starmer's political future. While the PM has so far resisted calls to step down, the latest odds suggest his position is increasingly precarious ahead of the crucial deadline.