In a surprise development, the expected resignation date of Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been brought forward by 2 days to 19 August 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.
The shift in the implied resignation date comes as Starmer's position as Labour leader faces growing pressure. The betting markets now suggest an ~86% chance that Starmer will have stepped down as PM by the new date of 19 Aug 2026.