PM Starmer's resignation deadline extended by 3 days to 20 Aug

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The deadline for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to announce his resignation has been pushed back by 3 days to 20 Aug, according to the latest Polymarket data.

The extension comes as the implied probability of Starmer stepping down by the original 18 Aug date fell to ~86%. The new 20 Aug deadline suggests the market sees a higher chance of the PM clinging on for longer.