PM Starmer's resignation date moves £2k earlier to 21 Aug 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been brought forward by 2 days to 21 August 2026, according to the latest Polymarket betting. The shift comes as markets now imply an ~86% chance Keir Starmer will no longer be PM by that date.

Political analysts suggest the earlier exit could be linked to growing pressure on Starmer from within his own party. However, the PM's office has not commented on the change.