PM Starmer's resignation date brought forward by 2 days to 12 October 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The date by which Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to announce his resignation has been moved forward by 2 days, from 14 October 2026 to 12 October 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.

The shift in the implied resignation date comes amid ongoing speculation about Starmer's political future. The ~86% chance of Starmer resigning by the new date of 12 October 2026 suggests growing uncertainty around the Prime Minister's position.