PM Starmer's resignation date pushed back by 3 days to 16 October

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The date by which Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to announce his resignation has been pushed back by 3 days, according to Polymarket data. The previous expected resignation date of 14 October has now shifted to 16 October.

The change in the implied resignation date reflects updated market sentiment on Starmer's political future. The probability of Starmer remaining as PM on 16 October is now estimated at ~86%.