PM Starmer's resignation date shifts by 1 day to 9 October 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been pushed back by 1 day, from 8 October 2026 to 9 October 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data.

The shift in the implied resignation date suggests the market now sees a slightly lower chance of Starmer stepping down by the original date. However, the overall probability of his resignation by October 2026 remains high at ~86%.