PM Starmer's resignation date pushed back by 2 days to 8 October 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

The date by which Keir Starmer must announce his resignation as Prime Minister has been pushed back by 2 days, from 6 October 2026 to 8 October 2026.

This change reflects updated market expectations on Starmer's political future, with the implied probability of him remaining PM on 8 October now around ~86%.