PM Starmer's resignation date moves forward by 2 days to 2 Nov 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

According to Polymarket, the implied date for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation has moved forward by 2 days to 2 November 2026.

The shift in the resignation date market suggests the prospect of Starmer stepping down as PM has increased, with the probability of his resignation by 2 November now around ~86%.