PM Starmer's resignation date moves up by 6 days to 16 Sept 2026

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

In a surprise development, the date by which UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to resign has shifted 6 days earlier to 16 September 2026, according to political betting markets.

The earlier resignation date suggests a growing sense of uncertainty around Starmer's future as PM, with the implied probability of his departure by that date now standing at ~86%.