A large £1.6k bet on Polymarket has pushed the implied probability of Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaving Downing Street by June 30 to around 96%. The trade, made by user 'Pesky-Softdrink-Collar', suggests the market sees Starmer's resignation as highly likely to be announced within the next two months.
The June 30 market is a 'yes/no' contract, with 'yes' meaning Starmer will have resigned by that date. The £1.6k bet implies strong confidence among traders that the Prime Minister will depart Downing Street before the end of the current quarter.