A £1.6k Polymarket bet suggests there is around an 83% chance that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will resign from Downing Street by June 22, according to the market's implied probability.
The large trade, made by an anonymous trader known as 'Blaring-Backdrop', closed a position betting that Starmer will leave office by the end of next month. The market's pricing indicates the resignation is seen as highly likely to be announced by that date.