A large £1.6k bet has been placed on Polymarket that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will still be in office by June 24. The trade implies around a ~22% chance that Starmer will remain PM on that date.
The anonymous trader, known as 'Black-And-White-Niece', opened the position on the 'Starmer still in office on June 24' outcome. This suggests the market sees a roughly 1-in-5 chance of Starmer surviving in Downing Street until the end of June.