The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been pushed back by one day, from 18 August 2026 to 19 August 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data. The shift comes as the implied probability of Starmer leaving office by the original date has fallen to ~86%.
The change in the expected resignation timeline follows recent market movements and may reflect evolving political dynamics around the Prime Minister's future. Starmer has faced growing pressure from within the Labour party, but remains in office for the time being.