The Prime Minister's expected resignation date has been brought forward by 6 days, from 26 August 2026 to 20 August 2026, according to the latest Polymarket data. This suggests the probability of Starmer remaining as PM on that date has decreased to around ~86%.
The shift in the implied resignation date comes amid ongoing political turbulence and speculation around Starmer's future. However, the Labour Party has not yet commented on the development.