PM Starmer's resignation odds shorten as Polymarket deadline moves forward by 11 days

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

In a significant development, the Polymarket prediction market has shifted the deadline for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation from 20 August 2026 to 9 August 2026 - a move forward of 11 days.

The change in the implied resignation date suggests the market now sees a higher probability of Starmer departing Downing Street earlier than previously expected. The shift comes as traders adjust their bets on the PM's future in light of evolving political dynamics.