Prime Minister Keir Starmer's expected resignation date has been pushed back by one day, now seen by August 20, according to the latest market data. The shift comes as Starmer's grip on power appears to be holding despite ongoing pressure from rebel MPs.
The change suggests the probability of Starmer remaining as PM on August 20 has increased to ~86%, up from ~84% previously. Polymarket traders are now pricing in a later exit for the embattled Labour leader.