PM Starmer's resignation date pushed back to 12 August

· implied p50 shift

Briefing

Prime Minister Keir Starmer's expected resignation date has been pushed back by 2 days to 12 August, according to the latest Polymarket data.

The shift comes as Starmer's prospects of remaining in office past the summer appear to have improved slightly. The implied probability of him still being PM on 12 August is now around ~86%.