A Polymarket prediction market tracking Keir Starmer's future as Prime Minister has seen a significant shift, with the odds of him remaining PM by June 23 dropping from ~90% to ~85%. This ~5 percentage point decline suggests growing uncertainty around Starmer's political future.
The Polymarket market, which allows traders to bet on whether Starmer will still be PM on June 23, has seen its implied probability of a 'Yes' outcome (Starmer resigning by that date) rise accordingly. This shift in market sentiment could signal mounting pressure on the Prime Minister.