The odds of Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigning by June 24 have fallen by around 8 percentage points to ~80%, according to the Polymarket prediction market. The market had previously implied an ~88% chance of Starmer's departure by that date.
The shift in odds comes as the Prime Minister battles to retain control of the Labour Party amid growing internal dissent. Starmer has faced sustained pressure from rebel MPs to step down, with the number demanding his resignation now reaching the low hundreds.